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Allstar GamblingJuly 3, 2019TwitterFacebookWhatsAppFor centuries, the strategic potential of blackjack has defied the chances and reduced the house edge to the point of complete elimination. The advanced card counting strategies were fought off by the casino operators through a gradual increase of the card decks inside the shoe.
Nowadays, it is next to impossible to find a live blackjack variant played with 1, 2, or even 4 decks; instead, 6 and 8-deck blackjack games are dominating the market, thwarting the beginner-level card counters. This, along with the RNG (Random Number Generator) blackjack, has created the need for alternative solutions, and a number of players resorted to blackjack betting strategies that exploit the winning and losing streaks, focusing on money management rather than trying to predict the next card. At the same time, these are much easier to master than some of the advanced blackjack techniques, such as Shuffle Tracking, Zen, or Omega 2.
The complexity and dedication are not the only reasons people shy away from card counting techniques. Casino operators frown upon any skill that will give you an unfair advantage over other players (and the house), which is why advanced budget management methods are your safest resorts. They can also be arranged according to the difficulty level, starting with the simplest form of betting (flat) and gradually advancing to the complex patterns used by experienced players (Labouchere):
Apart from the complexity level, each of the systems can also be classified according to the risk degree and the type of progression it entails – negative or positive.
Flat betting is somewhat of an exception, and many do not even consider it a strategy at all. The only requirement of this “system” is to remain in the game by constantly submitting the same size bet. Ideally, the player needs to establish a budget and divide it into equal portions of up to 5% of the total balance. Clearly, flat betting will not make you rich, but the strategy is deemed successful if you manage to generate around 10-20% profit.
Apart from the extreme simplicity, the strongest suit of flat betting is the damage control it delivers. The fixed stakes will prevent you from suffering a sudden, substantial loss that some of the other methods are prone to.
On the other hand, the results that flat betting can produce are modest and rest on the assumption that you will win more than 50% of the time. This is why most players outgrow this strategy fairly quickly. The monotony makes it quite easy to abandon this process and move onto potentially more profitable (and riskier) blackjack betting strategies described below.
Risk Rate: Low
Positive Progressive Betting Systems – Definition and Popular Variants
Positive progressive betting systems are designed to get the most of the players’ winning streak, commanding a bet increase every time you score a winning blackjack hand. The stakes are raised systematically and lowered after the first losing hand. The most popular representatives of positive progressive strategies are Paroli and Oscar’s Grind.
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Play NowParoli is often defined as a reversed Martingale system, prompting the players to top the stake after every winning hand. Every next bet should be doubled and re-set after three consecutive winning rounds. For example, if we are to start our betting session with a $1 stake, the next two stakes should be increased by 2:
$1 > $2 > $4
For the sake of illustration, let us assume that you have placed a $10 bet and your hand trumped the dealer’s, resulting in an even money payout. Your next bet should, therefore, be $20, which is your base bet + $10 that you have won in the previous round. If you manage to win that hand as well, the follow-up stake should amount to $40 – again, the $10 base stake, plus the winnings from the previous rounds. The third win will result in an $80 bet, after which you will need to go back to the initial $10 bet, regardless of the outcome. Looking at the starting point, we can easily deduce that a $10 starting bet generated a total of $160.
As you can see, the Reversed Martingale is very easy to use, as it requires the player to press the bet only 3 times and revert to the original wager in two cases – after a loss or when a series of three winning hands in a row is completed.
An added value of Paroli is that you do not need to have a substantial budget to implement this strategy, which is the main drawback of some other progressive betting patterns.
On the downside, three linked winning hands are not that easy to land, and the players may find themselves operating at a loss before long.
Risk Rate: Medium
A medium complexity system with a low-risk rate, Oscars Grind (aka Hoyle’s Press) starts off with a single unit bet and aims at generating an equivalent profit amount. The losing hands will follow the flat betting pattern whereas the winning hands will be followed by the bet increase – but only if it will result in the desired profit of one unit. Otherwise, the bet size is decreased to assure that the accurate amount is acquired, as shown in the table below:
Bet | Outcome | Return | Your next move |
---|---|---|---|
$1 | Loss | -1 | No change in bet |
$1 | Loss | -2 | No change in bet |
$1 | Loss | -3 | No change in bet |
$1 | Loss | -4 | No change in bet |
$1 | Loss | -5 | No change in bet |
$1 | Win | -4 | Next bet increases by 1 unit |
$2 | Loss | -6 | Bet remains the same (2 units) |
$2 | Win | -4 | Next bet increased to 3 units |
$3 | Win | -1 | Next bet adjusted to 2 units needed for a single unit profit |
$2 | Win | 1 | Round completed |
The desired result is a single unit win on every session as well as the increased damage control during the losing streaks.
The method is not aggressive which means that you will be able to sustain longer losing streaks without suffering irreparable damage to your finances. The proceeds, although modest, will gradually accumulate, recuperating the losses incurred across ten rounds in no more than 4 wins.
At the same time, you may find the system frustrating as it requires a lot of self-discipline and restraint.
Risk Rate: Low
As opposed to the progressive betting methods, the negative strategies demand that the bets are increased during the losing streaks; the idea is to recover all that you have previously lost and to gain a profit. By default, negative progressions are more aggressive than their counterparts and they carry a somewhat higher risk rate. The representatives of this methodology are Martingale, D’Alembert, and Laboucher systems.
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Play NowWhen you first come across to Martingale, it may seem like a heaven-sent system that simply cannot fail. You will soon discover that not all share your initial enthusiasm; there will be those who might urge you to avoid this strategy, especially if your gambling budget is limited.
As a negative progression system, Martingale mandates that you double the stake after every losing hand and go back to flat betting after a win. In the perfect world, this should generate a series of cumulative winnings and recuperate the losses in a course of a single losing streak.
But what happens if the streak prolongs and you budget dries out? Even if you start wagering with the betting minimum, you are running a risk of leaving the table empty-handed. To illustrate, let us assume that you begin the session with a $5 wager and start losing. To get back on the track, you will now need to double every next wager, which means that it will take no more than 8 consecutive losses to find yourself short of $1,275:
Bet | Outcome | Total in Losses |
---|---|---|
$5 | Loss | $5 |
$10 | Loss | $10 |
$20 | Loss | $35 |
$40 | Loss | $75 |
$80 | Loss | $155 |
$160 | Loss | $315 |
$320 | Loss | $635 |
$640 | Loss | $1,275 |
If the trend keeps up, you can soon end up with a considerable debt, which is probably not what you have signed up for when joining the blackjack table and introducing a betting structure to your game. High rollers will, of course, be able to disregard the elevated risk rate of the Martingale system, but average online or land-based casino visitors will probably need to adjust their strategy to the amount of money they can afford to lose. For most of them, this means that Martingale is off the limits.
The benefit of using Martingale is that it can produce excellent results in a relatively short time span.
As you can see, the cons, in this case, outweigh the pros, which means that you may want to leave the strategy to those with more money to waste.
Risk Rate: Extremely High
D’Alembert is a great alternative to Martingale, since it offers a reduced risk rate but has the same complexity level, which makes it suitable for beginners. The system has an alternating pattern, urging the players to increase the stakes by a single unit after a loss or deduct one unit from the follow-up wager after a win. So, if you should happen to lose $5 bet, the next amount that you need to wager is $10 and the one after that $15 (as $5 is considered a single unit). Should the $15 result in a win, the subsequent bet should be re-set to $10. Example:
Bet | Outcome | The follow-up bet | Total Balance |
---|---|---|---|
$1 | Loss | $2 | $99 |
$2 | Loss | $3 | $97 |
$3 | Win | $2 | $100 |
$2 | Loss | $3 | $98 |
$3 | Loss | $4 | $95 |
$4 | Win | $3 | $99 |
$3 | Win | $2 | $102 |
The entire scheme is very easy to follow through – all you need to do is remember your previous bet and act accordingly. Also, since the increase is moderate, you will not risk losing a large portion of your budget. Last but not least, thanks to the controlled variations in bet size, you are less likely to hit the table limits.
The main defect of this system is that it’ll take forever to recover the lost bets, not to mention the perils of the long losing streaks that are likely to severely affect your balance.
Risk Rate: Medium High
In Laboucher, the players start with any sequence of numbers, where the first and the last number in the chain determine the bet total. Let’s say that you select the following string:
2 – 3 – 4 – 6 – 9
When you add up the first and the last number, you will get a total of 11, which should be the initial bet. If you happen to win, the relevant numbers should be eliminated from the sequence, leaving you with 3 – 4 – 6.
Assuming that you win again, the remaining number (4) should be doubled.
If, on the other hand, you lose the initial bet, the total must be added to the chain:
2 – 3 – 4 – 6 – 9 – 11
The bet will now amount to $13 (2 + 11), adding the number $13 to the string if the player loses again, or removing both 2 and 11 if the outcome is favorable.
The sequence total will depend on the target amount, which means that the players whose objective is to make a profit of $20 will create any sequence that can add up to that sum.
The increased control of both the budget and the progression of your bets is the main perk of Laboucher, but the players should make sure to use it at high limit tables.
Just like Martingale, this system threatens to hit the table limits, although, not as fast.
Risk Rate: Medium
Seemingly complicated, the 1-3-2-6 blackjack betting strategy is actually much simpler than it looks at first glance. After deciding on the betting unit, the players will just need to make sure that the system is executed correctly, in accordance with the 1-3-2-6 sequence. On a $5 unit bet, the process would look like this:
The upside of this betting pattern is that you will have no difficulties mastering it – the formula is in the name itself, so it does not get any easier than that. The losses will not be severe, and you will be quite happy with the results this system provides in the short-run.
You might not need a huge bankroll to execute the 1-3-2-6 betting scheme but bear in mind that the system’s “expiration date” is just around the corner. While the maneuver is efficient enough to be included in the list of the best blackjack betting strategies, it will not eliminate the house edge and provide lasting results.
Risk Rate: Low to Medium
Adding some structure and limitation to your gambling routine might be just what you need to handle your money more efficiently. Still, you will need to remember that these systems are flawed, especially in the long run. As they have zero effect on the house edge, the end results they produce will be modest, but some of the low-risk systems mentioned above will prove quite handy in cutting down the unwanted losses.
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One popular search query on the internet, according to Google, is the following question:
What is the best strategy to win playing real money blackjack?
Most of the time, when you search for blackjack strategy on the internet, you’ll find a post explaining how you should always use basic strategy.
That’s good advice, as far as it goes. But basic strategy isn’t really a strategy at all. It’s just a list of tactics.
In this post, I’ll examine the difference between a blackjack strategy and blackjack tactics.
I’ll also some advice on coming up with a strategy for winning at blackjack.
A strategy is an overall approach to achieving a goal. With blackjack, most people have a goal of winning more money than they lose.
A tactic, on the other hand, is a specific action to take at a point during the execution of your strategy.
It’s a subtle difference, but it’s an important distinction to make.
Here’s an example of a blackjack tactic:
You get a total of 11 for your first 2 hands, and the dealer’s showing a 6. You decide to double down.
That’s a tactical decision. (It’s also the correct tactical decision.)
Here’s an example of a blackjack strategy:
You accumulate a bankroll of $10,000 before starting. You memorize and drill yourself on basic strategy until you’re 100% confident that every decision you make is mathematically correct at the blackjack table.
Then you learn the Hi-Lo Counting System, which you also practice and drill until you can do it without mistakes and without anyone knowing you’re counting.
You bet between 1% and 5% of your total bankroll on every hand, depending on the count.
That’s an example of a blackjack strategy, because it describes your overall approach to the game.
I don’t remember what the context was, but years ago a poker player friend of mine mentioned that if you have a negative expectation, you need an infinite bankroll.
His point was well taken, and it applies to blackjack as well as real money poker.
The first step to having a blackjack strategy for winning is to figure out a way to get a positive mathematical expectation and managing your bankroll appropriately.
Most people understand that getting a positive expectation is as simple as learning and mastering a card counting strategy like the Hi-Lo. I’ll have more to say about counting cards and other advantage techniques in blackjack soon, but first, let me address bankroll management.
You need enough money in your bankroll to withstand the vagaries of fortune. No matter how good you are at blackjack, you’re going to have a small edge at best.
If you bet too high a percentage of your bankroll on each hand, you risk going broke before the long run kicks in.
A positive expectation only works in the long run.
I suggest not betting more than 1% to 5% of your bankroll on a hand of blackjack, no matter how good at the game you think you are.
This means that if you have a bankroll of $1000, you’d be betting between $10 and $50 per hand.
If you have a bankroll of $10,000, you’re betting between $100 and $500 per hand.
And keep in mind that you still have the possibility of going broke. Blackjack is a random game, even if you have appropriate strategies and bankroll management in place.
Casinos are able to withstand the vagaries of luck because they’re backed by tremendous bankrolls in the millions of dollars.
Most casinos could make a profit offering even money games just because they can absorb losing streaks better than players.
That’s the first pillar of your winning blackjack strategy – appropriate bankroll management.
The next thing you need to do is master basic blackjack strategy.
Basic strategy is just the mathematically best way to play every hand in the game.
Some hands are good and have a positive expectation almost any way you play them. Many hands are terrible and have a negative expectation any way you play them.
Basic strategy has looked at the expectation of every possible action in every possible situation and chosen the one with the highest mathematical expectation.
If you’re in a situation where multiple decision have a positive expected value, basic strategy tells you which decision has the highest positive expectation.
If you’re in a situation where every decision has a negative expectation, basic strategy tells you which decision loses you the least amount of money in the long run.
When you see people talking about how the house edge in blackjack is less than 1% or less than 0.5%, these estimates assume that you’re using basic strategy to make your decisions.
The average gambler, just playing by feel or guesswork, adds 2% to 4% to the house edge just by making basic strategy mistakes.
So, if you want to win at blackjack, you must master basic strategy first.
This will get you to where the house edge is as low as possible.
Counting cards doesn’t require you to memorize all the cards that have been played so that you know which cards are left in the deck.
To succeed at card counting, you just need a way of estimating the ratio of high-value cards to low-value cards still in the deck.
Why does card counting work to get you an edge in blackjack?
The answer is simple:
You get paid off at 3 to 2 odds for a natural – a 2-card hand totaling 21.
The only way to get a blackjack is to get an ace and a card valued at 10 (the 10s, jacks, queens, and kings are worth 10 points each).
When a random deck of cards is dealt, the ratio of 10s and aces in the deck to the lower cards in the deck changes based on which cards have been dealt.
Sometimes you’ll wind up with a deck where there are more low-value cards than high-value cards.
And sometimes you’ll wind up with a deck where there are more high-value cards than low-value cards.
When there’s an imbalance resulting in a lot of 10s and aces, you have a higher probability of getting that 3 to 2 payout, so it makes sense to bet more in those situations.
When the reverse is true, you should bet less.
Here’s a simple way to figure this out:
The most basic and probably most popular card counting method is the Hi-Lo System. Using this system, you assign a +1 or -1 value to some of the cards in the deck. You keep a running tally, called “the count,” using this plus or minus 1 system.
When low cards come out of the deck, the deck gets better for the player. These cards get counted as +1. The low cards that matter in the Hi-Lo Count are the 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, and 6s.
You’ll notice that the 7s, 8s, and 9s aren’t mentioned. For the purposes of this counting system, they each count as 0.
When the count is positive, you’ll bet more.
When the count is 0 or negative, you’ll bet less.
Just by doing this, you can convert a negative expectation game into a positive expectation game.
To learn how to do this, start by practicing at your kitchen table. Count through an entire deck of cards, adding and subtracting one. Time yourself.
You should arrive at a total of 0 when you get through the entire deck.
If you wind up with another total, you made a mistake, and you need to slow down and try again.
Once you can get to 0 several times in a row, it’s time to try to get faster.
The first step to doing this is to deal 2 cards at a time and count them that way.
This is will more accurately simulate what you’ll face in the casino anyway. Blackjack moves fast, especially if you’re heads-up with a dealer. An average casino dealer can deal over 200 hands per hour when playing heads-up with a player.
You should practice in conditions that simulate a casino. Turn the TV and the radio on at the same time so that you can deal with the noise. Get the kids to play in the kitchen while you’re practicing. That will help you deal with the peripheral activity going on within sight of you.
When you get to the casino, size your bets based on the count.
If the count is +1, increase the size of your bet from $10 to $20.
If it’s +2, increase the size of your bet from $10 to $30.
And so on, up to 5% of your bankroll.
Limit yourself to an hour at a specific table in a specific casino, and try to visit the casinos during different shifts.
The best strategy to win at blackjack is to master basic strategy, learn to count cards, and risk less than 5% of your bankroll on a single bet.
Then don’t caught by the casino.